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  • A key numerical weather prediction technology today is ensembles, in which we run our models many times, while slightly different starting points or model physics.
  • The record winter talk was started by my colleagues at the National Weather Service, who noted in their twitter feed that during the last 24 hr Seattle had achieved a record rain total for December, January, and February (see details below for numbers as of this morning) for the period going back to 1894. At that point we were ahead by .
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The colored lines are the varying forecasts. The general set up was favorable, with cold air in place and a developing low center that was large in scale and positioned sufficiently south and east to draw in cool air, while rotating moisture in aloft (see forecast map for 1 AM PST below, shading is precipitation, solid lines are sea level pressure). The National Center for Atmospheric Research has a more sophisticated and higher resolution ensemble system. Which model did better for this storm, the European Center or the American GFS? Some forecasts will still be in error, even a day or two out, when their are large sensitivities to the model initial state or physics. By looking at 카지노사이트 of the forecasts, meteorologists can secure an idea about the uncertainty of the forecasts. Weather forecasting is not only science; there is a religious element to it as well and represents a task that can only be accomplished when mankind works together. I love new weather observing systems and when I heard about a new-technology rain gauge that works with infrared beams, I was more than curious. And there is one more thing, and it is perhaps controversial. And then there is the tipping bucket rain gauge in which water fills cups that can only hold .01 inches of rain.

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